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Coface revises its world growth forecast and downgrades 13 countries
July 7, 2009
- Coface recently published new growth forecasts that take into account a decline in growth of 6.6 points between 2007 and 2009. Coface also projects that the growth rate during the 2009 recession will be at -2.5% and sees growth recovering in 2010 at 1.7%.
- After having downgraded 22 countries in January and then 47 in April, Coface is now downgrading 13 country ratings, primarily for small or medium-size economies highly dependent on international trade.
- Visible signs of the end of the recession, with a weak and slow L-shaped recovery remain the most likely scenario.
The fifth credit crisis: A decline in growth of 6.6 points between 2007 and 2009:
Coface predicts a world recession of -2.5% in 2009 (industrialized countries: -3.9% and emerging countries: +0.7%) and positive, but a weak growth rate of 1.7% in 2010. The expected recovery in 2010 is weak for industrialized countries (0.5%), but better for emerging countries (4.1%).
This revised forecast incorporates a greater falloff in growth than originally forecasted at the beginning of the year, and it assumes that this drop will stop in the coming weeks.
Thus the difference in world growth between 2007 and 2009 will reach 6.6 points, an exceptionally large decline in growth. The CIS and emerging Europe are zones where the decline in growth is the greatest.
Growth losses between 2007 and 2009 (% points)
13 new rating downgrades, but positive signs in China and India
Western Europe seems to have reached the bottom of the recession. The ratings for most European countries are unchanged, except for Austria, the Netherlands and Finland (ratings downgraded from A1 on negative watch to A2) due to a falloff in foreign demand. Coface also places Portugal's A3 rating on negative watch due to the sharp decline in household consumption and the drop in exports and investment. Emerging Europe is the zone whose economy is most affected by the crisis and whose currencies are still fragile. Slovakia (A3) has been placed on negative watch due to the substantial drop in economic activity, as well as the Baltic countries due to the magnitude of the recession, which weighs on their heavily indebted companies.
Latin America is showing resilience against the world crisis, while Central America is suffering from exposure to the North American downturn. Thus, Coface has placed on negative watch the ratings of small economies that continue to suffer the consequences of the crisis in the United States (Costa Rica, El Salvador and Guatemala). In Venezuela, the access to liquidity in dollars is becoming harder, which results in a rise in late payments.
The Asia Pacific Zone has the most positive signs of recovery and already visible in the zone's two largest economies. However, Coface maintains the negative watch placed on China's A3 rating in January 2009 due to recurrent problems of private sector companies, where the default payment risk is the highest.
"Three types of positive signals argue for an inclined L-shaped growth recovery, states François David, Chairman of Coface. "Some real economy indicators are improving: retail sales, property and job losses in the USA and industrial production in the United Kingdom. Anticipation surveys of investors and consumers are pointing up and financial players are showing a renewed appetite for risk. Our inclined L-shaped scenario is nonetheless dependent on confidence, which is still weak."
| Country Ratings Changes |
| Country |
March 2009 |
New rating June 2009 |
| Western Europe |
| Austria |
A1 |
A2 |
| Finland |
A1 |
down to A2 |
| Netherlands |
A1 |
down to A2 |
| Portugal |
A3 |
A3, negative watch |
| Emerging Europe |
| Slovakia |
A3 |
A3, negative watch |
| Estonia |
A4 |
A4, negative watch |
| Lithuania |
A4 |
A4, negative watch |
| Latvia |
B |
B, negative watch |
Americas
|
| Costa Rica |
A4 |
A4, negative watch |
| El Salvador |
B |
B, negative watch |
| Guatemala |
B |
B, negative watch |
| Venezuela |
C |
C, negative watch |
Africa
|
| Botswana |
A3 |
down to A4 |
Coface Country Ratings indicate the average level of risk presented by companies in their commercial transactions. The ratings do not relate to sovereign debt.
Press contact: Sue Hinton / 212-389-6466 / sue_hinton@coface.com
About Coface
Coface's mission is to facilitate global business-to-business trade by offering its 130,000 customers four business lines to fully or partly outsource trade relationship management and to finance and protect their receivables: credit insurance, factoring, ratings and business information and receivables management. Due to the worldwide local service delivered by 7,000 staff in 65 countries, over 45% of the world's 500 largest corporate groups are already customers of Coface. Coface is a subsidiary of Natixis whose share capital (Tier 1) was 13.4 billion euros at the end of December 2008. www.coface.com
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Outlook 2012
This month's survey explores...
- What the top problems are facing credit execs currently, and
- What the top improvement initiatives are.
Click here to participate!
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