 |
|
 |
|
 |
|
 |
|
 |
Our Subscribers Say...
I think Credit Today is fantastic. You cover many practical topics in the credit field that I use regularly. Just one recent example—a conversation on the ListServ about preferential payments—gave me tips that I used in an actual case. The specific information I picked up from this one discussion saved me $10,000, enough to cover my membership for many years!
- Steve Savino
Manager of Credit & Collections, ASSA Abloy Americas Division, New Haven, CT
Credit Today's Resource Directory and their online e-mail forum (ListServ) provide information on almost any credit-related topic you can think of. It is a great way to exchange information with other credit professionals. As the saying goes, "You don't know what you don't know."
- Scott Goen,
Credit Manager, Big Lots Stores, Inc., Wholesale Division
"We've recently started using the ListServ tool within Credit Today. This is phenomenal and powerful forum for gaining immediate feedback, ideas, and suggestions, relative to any credit topic under the sun, all in a real-time e-mail format."
-Javier Vela, Senior Credit Manager, Global Credit Services, JDA Software Group Inc.
"Being a part of the Credit Today online community is like having the expertise of hundreds of credit managers at your fingertips. These credit execs are willing to help you solve topical business issues as they arise. In the current environment of ever increasing competing priorities which reduce our opportunities to meet peers out of the office face-to-face, this is the most valuable tool you can have on your desktop! It's important that we have a mechanism to reach out to our counterparts quickly to exchange knowledge as well as to stay on top of industry trends."
- Victoria Artis, Director of Customer Financial Services, Pfizer, Inc.
"Over the last 10 years I've seen Credit Today evolve from a monthly credit publication into a quality source of information and guidance for the B2B credit community. The website, with its user friendly form downloads, will take you from examples of new account credit applications to bankruptcy forms and everything in between.
The Credit Today ListServ has become the pre-imminent online forum, providing an opportunity for discussion and comments (and occasional humor) from an impressive list of credit professionals."
David Dungan, Director of Credit
Justin Brands, Inc. (A Berkshire Hathaway company)
Fort Worth, Texas
"There are numerous credit periodicals available to the credit professional today. How good is Credit Today? Is it relevant? I always have to read it late, or online because my credit analysts want to read it the minute it comes in. When my staff wants to read a publication before I have a chance to read it then something is working in that publication. We have cancelled our other subscriptions. When you have the best you do not need the rest."
Ron Woods
Corporate Credit Manager-World Wide
Thales Navigation, Inc.
"The newsletter, coupled with the website and the ListServ, are to us, more valuable than any other credit publication, bar none. I try to use at least one article out of each newsletter for departmental training/discussion sessions."
D. Mark Constantine
Corporate Credit Mgr
Fulton Paper Company
"I love Credit Today and read every issue cover to cover. For me, the greatest perk of a subscription is ListServ. I believe Credit Today's ListServ members may be the most knowledgeable Credit brain trust in existence today. I have saved and categorized hundreds of contributions on a wide variety of topics which I refer to often. It's an easy and cost effective way to network and learn."
Doug M. Thomas
Kimberly-Clark Customer Financial Services |
|
|
 |
Number of Customers in Equifax's Highest Risk Category Triples in the 2nd Q of 2009!
My Favorite Graph From the All-South Credit Conference
Last week I (publisher Rob Lawson) was privileged to moderate a roundtable discussion on the economy at the NACM All-South Credit Conference in Tampa at which five distinguished experts from the trade credit field offered up their views on what's going on out there in the "real world" economy.
One of the presenters at the conference was Lee Lovvorn, Equifax's Senior Vice President of North American Commercial Solutions. He asked the data technicians and analysts at Equifax to go into their database and mine it for current and relevant data on what's going on out there.
Now keep in mind that Equifax has extensive credit data on both consumers and businesses. And on the business side, they have some proprietary data from banks on small businesses including such critical information as loans and payment history on loans.
This is stuff you won't see in the newspapers or even in most of the many "leading indicators" out there.
Lee presented many charts and graphs but the one I'm highlighting below is the one that really struck home with me.
This chart measures the percentage of businesses that fall into Equifax's highest risk category ("5"). As you can see, there's been an astonishing spike from the 1st quarter to the 2nd quarter of 2009 - just as the stock market has risen.
This chart generated some skeptisism from an audience member.
After all, we're talking about a tripling of customers in the highest risk category - in just ONE quarter! That's a staggering and sobering piece of data - particularly when it coincides with the recent rise in the stock market.
Lee used this graph as summation of many points he'd made and showed it just before we took a break in the session. During the break, an experienced and savvy energy industry credit pro came up to me and said he was skeptical of that chart: "Did Lee post that just to see if we were all awake?! How can there have been such a sharp rise in that category? I'm not sure I believe it!"
While I can certainly understand the skepitiscm, I can also understand clearly how this rise in risk may have happened and how it might not be as sudden as it appears.
First, the chart only shows those businesses falling into their highest risk category.
It doesn't show the other four categories.
It's highly possible that in the quarters leading up to spike many businesses were getting progressively weaker (drawing their capital down as business faltered) and then collectively were pushed into the worst category as their capital and resources depleted. After all, there are still some very serious stresses in the economy right now. Business activity is up marginally since the early part of this year, but it's still way down from a year ago.
Keep in mind also that bankruptcies (and insolvencies that don't formally become bankruptcies) are often a lagging indicator of the economy, whereas the stock market is a leading indicator.
Nonetheless, a chart showing this rapid a decline in the health of so many businesses may signal that perhaps the stock market is sending us a false signal here.
In general, the stock market is wrong half the time on the way down. But on the way up, it's always right. Or at least, in modern memory it's always been right. But if you go back to the 1930s, there were many times that the stock market rallied significantly (sometimes 50%, as it has lately), but ultimately the economy stayed dead-in-the-water for more than a decade.
Could that be what's happening here? I don't know, but it's certainly worth factoring into your thinking.
The benign view (though still not a good view) of this chart is that we're still in for a very serious spell of credit problems going forward. Watch for continued slowing payments and dramatically rising bankruptcies. But perhaps the general economy might continue to improve.
The more serious interpretation is that the stock market is wrong this time around and we're in for some really serious trouble ahead.
Either way, from the perspective of trade credit managers, the worst may still be yet to come.
| |
|
 |
Outlook 2012
This month's survey explores...
- What the top problems are facing credit execs currently, and
- What the top improvement initiatives are.
Click here to participate!
|
|
 |
|
 |
|
 |
|
February 2012
|
|
| S |
M |
T |
W |
T |
F |
S |
| |
|
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
10
|
11
|
|
12
|
13
|
14
|
15
|
16
|
17
|
18
|
|
19
|
20
|
21
|
22
|
23
|
24
|
25
|
|
26
|
27
|
28
|
29
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Webinars
