December 15, 2009 (OWINGS MILLS, MD) -- Most economists are certain that the Fed will not raise the Fed Funds rate tomorrow. But there are some other possible outcomes, that although unlikely, might be significant, says Dan North, Chief Economist at Euler Hermes ACI.

"We don't think rates will go up, but there are three other possibilities which could signal that a tightening is coming sooner than expected:

• First, the members of the FOMC could change the wording of the statement, in particular the words 'exceptionally' and 'extended.'

• Second, they could indicate another trail-off in quantitative easing purchases.

• And third, inflation and dollar hawk Jeffrey Lacker, in his last meeting as a voting member of the FOMC, could cast a dissenting vote (he's done it five times since 2006) signalling his concern about inflation.

"The likelihood of the third possibility happening is small" concedes North. "But the likelihood of any of the three alternatives happening is significant, and it could signal a tightening soon."

Euler Hermes ACI Chief Economist Dan North uses macroeconomic and quantitative analyses to help develop, price, and manage the company's risk and insurance portfolio of more than $150 billion in annual U.S. trade transactions, and also forecasts the direction of the U.S. economy. North holds an MBA from the Wharton School of Business.

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Euler Hermes ACI is North America's oldest and largest provider of trade credit insurance and accounts receivable management solutions and is the US subsidiary of the Euler Hermes Group. Headquartered in Owings Mills, MD, the company protects and insures more than $150 billion in US trade transactions annually. Additionally, Euler Hermes ACI provides a suite of receivables management services that includes commercial third party collections, receivables management outsourcing, and international collections. For more information, visit www.eulerhermes.us.

Euler Hermes is the worldwide leader in credit insurance and one of the leaders in the areas of bonding, guarantees and collections. With 6,200 employees in over 50 countries, Euler Hermes offers a complete range of services for the management of B-to-B trade receivables and posted a consolidated turnover of €2.2 billion in 2008.

Euler Hermes has developed a credit intelligence network that enables it to analyse the financial stability of 40 million businesses across the globe. The group protects worldwide business transactions totalling €700 billion.

Euler Hermes, a member of the Allianz group, is listed on Euronext Paris. The group and its principal credit insurance subsidiaries are rated AA- by Standard & Poor's.

www.eulerhermes.com

Press Release

Press Contact:

Kristen Schoch

Euler Hermes ACI Communications Specialist

Phone: (410) 753-0861

Email: kristen.schoch@eulerhermes.com

These assessments are, as always, subject to the disclaimer provided below.

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements: Certain of the statements contained herein may be statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on management's current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. In addition to statements which are forward-looking by reason of context, the words 'may, will, should, expects, plans, intends, anticipates, believes, estimates, predicts, potential, or continue' and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those in such statements due to, without limitation, (i) general economic conditions, including in particular economic conditions in the Allianz SE's core business and core markets, (ii) performance of financial markets, including emerging markets, (iii) the frequency and severity of insured loss events, (iv) mortality and morbidity levels and trends, (v) persistency levels, (vi) the extent of credit defaults (vii) interest rate levels, (viii) currency exchange rates including the Euro-U.S. Dollar exchange rate, (ix) changing levels of competition, (x) changes in laws and regulations, including monetary convergence and the European Monetary Union, (xi) changes in the policies of central banks and/or foreign governments, (xii) the impact of acquisitions, including related integration issues, (xiii) reorganization measures and (xiv) general competitive factors, in each case on a local, regional, national and/or global basis. Many of these factors may be more likely to occur, or more pronounced, as a result of terrorist activities and their consequences. The matters discussed herein may also involve risks and uncertainties described from time to time in Allianz SE's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The Group assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein.